Shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act.
Stratfor: Morning Intelligence Brief - May 14, 2007
Afghan intelligence announced on Sunday that top Taliban military
commander Mullah Dadullah was killed early Saturday during a battle
with an Afghan-NATO force in Helmand province. The 40-year-old
Taliban leader had emerged as the most important operational
commander on which Mullah Mohammad Omar could rely in pressing
ahead with the jihadist insurgency in the country. Under his
leadership, the Pashtun jihadist movement adopted the tactic of
suicide bombings, and he represented the faction close to al Qaeda
Dadullah's killing is the first major success for Kabul and NATO
against the Pashtun jihadists since the resurgence of the Taliban
shortly after the ouster of their regime in 2001. Until now,
fighters and low- to mid-level leaders had been killed; this is the
first time a major Taliban figure has been eliminated. He is known
to have been a member of the 10-man Taliban leadership council. His
death also will have serious implications for al Qaeda's plans
involving the Taliban .
Media reports based on information released by Afghan and NATO
officials suggest Dadullah was killed during one of the many
battles that have taken place between Taliban fighters and
coalition troops in southern and eastern Afghanistan over the past
several years. Given the operational security protocols of the
Taliban and the stature of Dadullah, however, the official version
does not add up. In other words, Afghan and NATO forces carried out
the operation to take out Dadullah on the basis of specific human
intelligence regarding his location. It is not likely a matter of
coincidence nor is it probable that Afghan and NATO troops have
been able to enhance their intelligence capabilities on the
jihadists. This leaves only one possibility -- the involvement of a
third party.
Given the close ties between the Taliban and the Pakistani state
and society, it is highly likely that Islamabad is the source of
the intelligence on Dadullah. It should be noted that after several
years of tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with Kabul
claiming that Islamabad was backing the Taliban, the Pakistanis
pledged to cooperate with the Afghans against the Taliban. This
was relayed by President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to Afghan President
Hamid Karzai at an April 30 meeting in Turkey, during which they
agreed to share intelligence on militant groups.
Though the Musharraf government's decision to work with Kabul on
containing the Taliban is fueled by its domestic concerns ,
Dadullah's death has certain implications for the domestic
situation in Afghanistan. Though the insurgency will continue, it
has been dealt a significant blow -- and the pace of the Taliban's
advance has likely been dampened. More important, the vacuum
created by Dadullah's death could trigger infighting between
hard-liners linked to al Qaeda and more pragmatic elements.
The Taliban will be worried about how their organizational security
net was penetrated and will be suspicious of many within their own
ranks, which could lead to internal strife. Already those close to
Omar and al Qaeda are concerned about the more pragmatic elements
talking to the Karzai administration. There are signs that such
elements, knowing Kabul would not strike a deal with them unless
they parted ways with Omar and his allies, might have actually
helped in the elimination of Dadullah; many within the movement
actually did not approve of Dadullah's harsh policies.
Former Taliban Ambassador to Pakistan Abdus Salam Zaeef, who
represented the Taliban in recent talks with Karzai , reacted to
Dadullah's killing by saying it would lead to more fighting, and
that talks are the only way to bring the violence to an end.
Dadullah's killing also comes a few days after the upper house of
the Afghan legislature approved a bill calling for direct talks
with the Taliban and a halt to NATO operations against jihadists.
Though anti-jihadist operations will continue, negotiations
involving Kabul and Islamabad geared toward further weakening
those loyal to Omar and strengthening pragmatic leaders within the
movement will become increasingly important in the months ahead.