Geopolitical Diary: A Strategic Arrest in the U.S.-Iranian Covert War

Stratfor: Morning Intelligence Brief, 3 May 07

Hossein Mousavian, a former nuclear negotiator for the Iranian

regime, was arrested on Wednesday at his home and taken to Tehran's

Evin prison on national security-related charges, specifically

"communication and exchange of information with foreign agents,"

Persian-language Fars News Agency reported. This carefully timed

arrest appears to be yet another move in the covert intelligence

war between Iran and the United States.

Mousavian has served as Iran's ambassador to Germany, secretary of

the foreign policy committee of Iran's Supreme National Security

Council (SNSC) and as a leading negotiator in nuclear talks with

the European Union. After losing his SNSC post in 2005, Mousavian

became deputy head of the Tehran-based Center for Strategic

Research, a think-tank closely affiliated with former Iranian

President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Mousavian's dismissal,

along with Ali Larijani's replacement of SNSC chief Hassan Rowhani,

is likely due to the sacked officials' dissenting views on how Iran

should manage its nuclear ambitions. On a number of occasions,

Mousavian has recommended that Iran bargain over its rights to a

nuclear fuel cycle and give in to the U.N. Security Council's

demand that it suspend uranium enrichment.

The arrest is part of an intensifying covert intelligence war

between Iran and the United States. This battle has involved a

number of public incidents, including: the apparent abduction of

an ex-FBI agent, the U.S. detainment of five Iranian officials in

the northern Iraqi city of Arbil, the Mossad hit against Iranian

nuclear scientist Ardeshir Hassanpour and the retaliatory

assassination in Paris against the head of the Israeli Defense

Ministry Mission to Europe, the abduction of an Iranian official

in Baghdad (who was later swapped for the 15 British detainees ),

as well as three recent defections of senior Iranian officials to

the West.

Alarmed by these defections, Iran has ramped up its covert

collection efforts around the globe to root out additional moles

working for the West. Though Mousavian was a prominent public

figure who apparently was entrusted with a great deal of

responsibility in national security matters, there is reason to

believe he has been cooperating with Western intelligence for

several years. The United States has made a concerted effort since

the Iranian Revolution to target Iranian figures destined for the

country's security and intelligence organizations, and Mousavian

apparently made the cut. That is, until, Iran's internal

counterterrorism inquest caught up with him.

The arrest also carries significant implications for Rafsanjani.

Mousavian is a major player in Rafsanjani's political and financial

network, and is known to have a close relationship with the former

president. Mousavian's apparent contact with the West could

compromise Rafsanjani's political career .

Mousavian's work at the Center for Strategic Research provided him

an ideal opportunity to meet with his handlers outside the country.

Such a job involves spending a lot of time abroad attending

conferences and giving presentations at various foreign institutes,

which would have allowed Mousavian to fly more easily under the

radar of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security. In all

likelihood, Mousavian was under investigation for quite some time,

and the announcement of his arrest is intended to serve a political

purpose.

That purpose lies in the Egyptian resort city of

Sharm el-Sheikh , where the United States and Iran are expected

during the next two days to engage in multilateral negotiations

over Iraq. Now that Washington and Iran have brought their private

negotiations into the public sphere, Iran is looking for an

insurance policy to keep the United States in check during these

talks. It is worth noting that the original report about

Mousavian's arrest appears to have come from Iran's state-owned

IRNA. By strategically timing this announcement, Iran is sending a

clear signal to Washington that now is the time to fold and engage

in serious negotiations.