Croatia: Fueling or Dampening the Rising Balkan Conflict?

Stratfor: Global Intelligence Brief, 30 Apr 07

Summary

The "political father" of modern-day Croatia, Ivica Racan, died

April 29, leaving the country without the leader who brought it

closer to the West. Racan's death comes at a time when Croatia's

neighbors are facing internal instability, which means Croatia must

decide either to break from its Western path and radicalize or to

work with its new Western partners toward a more European solution

to problems in the Balkans.

Analysis

Ivica Racan, the "political father" of modern-day Croatia, died

April 29 of brain cancer, leaving the country without the leader

who moved it closer to the West. Racan is known for democratizing

Croatia by battling Serbian nationalist leader Slobodan Milosevic,

organizing Croatia's first democratic elections, cleaning up the

country after the Balkan wars and creating Croatia's relationship

with the European Union.

Racan's center-left Social Democratic Party (SDP), along with a

handful of moderate and left parties, created a coalition that has

counterbalanced the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) since

2003. The HDZ gained enormous support in the 2003 elections when it

shifted away from its ultra-nationalist policies and "reformed"

itself into a more moderate right-wing party. HDZ has made great

leaps since then in developing ties with the European Union and

Western institutions, making policies that mirror those of Racan's

SDP. However, the personalities within the two parties have kept

them vehemently opposed -- not because of policy, but due to

personal scandals and politicking.

With the death of SDP's beloved and symbolic leader, the

moderate-left coalition could dissolve in the short term. Racan

hand-picked and groomed his political successor, Zoran Milanovic,

to handle Croatia's domestic and foreign political future. The

problem is that Milanovic is young -- he recently turned 40 -- and

has not had the time to consolidate a following within Croatia. It

will most likely take some time, with Racan gone, for Milanovic to

muster his forces. This will leave HDZ to sweep the parliamentary

elections in November. This will not change the fact that Croatia

is on an almost-certain path to EU and NATO membership, but it will

change the balance of power in the Balkans -- where tensions are

escalating.

Rising Tensions

Tensions in the Balkans are rising on two major fronts: Serbia and

Bosnia-Herzegovina. Serbia is still without a government after

months of political wrangling -- and with a deadline to form a

government quickly approaching (May 14). This deadline comes as

Serbia's secessionist region of Kosovo says it will gain (or

unilaterally declare) its controversial independence by the end

of May. The entire international community has been watching Kosovo

and Serbia in an attempt to prevent any destabilization --

especially of the ethnic cleansing kind -- of the Balkans in the

process.

The problem is that while the world has focused on Serbia and

Kosovo, it has ignored a quickly rising problem in Serbia's

neighbor, Bosnia-Herzegovina . The United Nations and European

Union have been pulling resources -- everything from negotiators to

security forces -- from Bosnia-Herzegovina to Kosovo, leaving all

the different Bosnian ethnicities to fight it out without much

supervision. Meanwhile, Bosnian Serb leader and nationalist

Milorad Dodik has been consolidating power in Bosnia -- not only

in the Serbian autonomous region of Republika Srpska, of which he

is prime minister, but on the federal level as well -- so much that

he has been called an up-and-coming Milosevic replacement.

International security officials within the country have said the

political situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina has gotten worse in the

past year than in all the short history of the state since the 1995

Dayton Accords. The entire country is in a deadlock as its three

ethnic groups -- the Bosnian Muslims (called Bosniacs), Bosnian

Croats and Bosnian Serbs -- fight over police, constitutional and

media reform. Ethnic tensions have not been this obvious since the

end of the 1992-1995 war between the Bosnian Serbs and a

Croat-Bosniac quasi-alliance, which left more than 100,000 dead.

In the past year, Dodik has actively shaken things up. He battled

to gain his fellow Serbs the most important offices in the federal

government (the interior, economic and prime ministerial posts),

called for Republika Srpska to secede and create a "Greater Serbia"

with its neighbor; consolidated the Serbian front against the

fractured Croat and Muslim groups and even incited a Croat

secessionist movement.

Croatia's Reaction

Since the end of the Balkan wars, the Serbs and Croats have

competed as they race for NATO membership , but the competition is

more serious within Bosnia, where their ethnic identities are at

stake. Croatia would respond to a destabilization in Kosovo, Serbia

or Bosnia-Herzegovina in order to protect not only itself, but also

ethnic Croats outside of its borders. The ruling HDZ currently is

the main group responsible for funding that campaign and organizing

funds and other assistance crossing the border to ethnic Croats in

Bosnia-Herzegovina. Though they did not prevent or want to prevent

it, Racan and his party long kept that assistance to a level they

thought of as an obligation without allowing the support to reach

levels that the European Union would see as destabilizing. Without

Racan, if the HDZ does sweep the upcoming elections, any internal

levers for restricting assistance to the Bosnian Croats is gone.

The one external lever that could restrict Croatia is its

integration into the West -- moreover, its deep relationship with

EU heavyweight Germany. Croatia's relationship with Germany dates

back to World War II, and current Croatian Prime Minister Ivo

Sanader boasts about being a close personal friend of German

Chancellor Angela Merkel. Croatia depends on Germany's political

sway and economic investments for its future in the West.

If Germany wants to counterbalance the instability from both a

Kosovar decision and Republika Srpska activism, it will have to

harness Croatia's instincts to radicalize, and use the country for

European purposes. This will be the first time that Croatia will

make such a large choice without Racan's moderating voice. However,

unless Croatia wants to be sucked back into -- or even escalate --

the Balkan conflicts it has worked so hard to detach itself from,

it will have to take up Racan's legacy and make good use of

Germany's backing in the struggle for a solution.