MILNEWS Comment: Israel Bombing Iran

I'm gonna have to say, that I find ANY strike by Israel on Iran to be highly improbable. I thought about it before saying this because normally for the US to allow Israel to traverse Iraqi airspace, pass close to Saudi Arabia, strike Iran and return using that or another egregious route would be so crazy and so astronomically damaging to Mid East Peace that it would never happen. But then there is the most moronic President that has ever been elected still in the White House, still making incredibly stupid decisions...so it is possible, along with the most pro-Israeli US lobby ever. You would think that there must be someone in the Bush Administration that has enough brains to realize the ramifications of this. You would think...There has to be, right....?

Sure, Israel can do this, but I figure it's too late to do it. The real nuke research and processing places are now super-hardened. All Iran's air defence is centred around them, and it's VERY far for Israel to fly. I think it would take at least 4 refuellings. If they get all the plants, it would take indipendent strikes and very big anti-air packs, perhaps 100 planes. Looking on a map like any good Infanteer, the distance round trip DIRECT ROUTE is nearly 3000 kilometres! There is no way this huge air package can traverse Jordan, or Syria, then the joint Brit/US controlled Iraqi airspace, then across the Arabian Gulf, hit deep into Iran and then return without the explicit permission of the US President. Tony Blair would be forced out of office over his nod to this, and Britain would face the worst relations with Europe since the 100 years war. There is no way that Turkey or Saudi Arabia are gonna let the package traverse their airspace. Besides, with Sharon now on some kind of peace kick, I hardly think that he would allow this sort of madness. You can read why below.

But we have to gauge Iran's reaction to this. An Attack by Israel would be US sanctioned, we already understand. So for Israel to attack Iran is for the US to attack Iran. The first thing Iran would do is push billions to Hesbolla to completely radicalize Palestine, and renew the civil war in Lebanon. If that wasn't bad enough, we would see the assassination of key Israelis abroad enmasse. Then, the assault on Britain would commence, with about a dozen tube bombings and a few political assassinations. Oh, then there is the moribund US terror risk, completely revamped Al Qaeda with all the money they no longer have, and the sea container bombs arrive at US docks, which don't exist for long. A few crashed suicide trawlers into key Gulf of Mexico refineries and you have meltdown in US gas prices. All non-nuke by the way, because of course the US will respond, and of course they will fuck it up. By this time, though, to attack Iran with nukes when Iran never did would be the final nail in the US coffin. After the United Nations HQ moves to Canada, there would be a world wide boycott of the States, with the financial collapse of our southern neighbour to follow.

See how this goes, but of course you can't figure the current Administration in a logical, rational way, so it is complete wild-card. If the Americans cannot arrest the Bush Administration in the last minutes before this madness is released, then it could happen! Can you imagine the panic if, after a US tac Nuke strike, Iran announced it had pre-positioned stolen Russian city busters in 5 key US cities, and then named them! Would YOU stay in Chicago? The evacuation of 50 million people in 1 hour would resemble the opening of Hell's gate for mayhem, death, murder, and the meltdown of the US economy. They don't have to do the bomb, they just have to SAY they did to kill thousands of Americans!

On my favourite Ra Ra Repub forum, I've argued this a couple of times, so I'm completely up on the subject, and it's a rational never-gonna-happen thing. But you add George Bush, and who can say? IF this happens, stay away from all things American....for about 10 years. Your life will depend on it.