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Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Iran Report
Vol. 9, No. 24, 7 July 2006
A Review of Developments in Iran Prepared by the Regional Specialists of RFE/RL's Newsline Team
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SELECTED HEADLINES
- NEW FOREIGN POLICY COUNCIL COULD AFFECT IRAN-U.S RELATIONS
- SUPREME LEADER QUESTIONS USEFULNESS OF TALKS WITH U.S
- WORLD AWAITS IRAN'S RESPONSE TO NUCLEAR PROPOSAL
- TEHRAN DENIES INTERFERING IN IRAQ
- WORLD NARCOTICS SUPPLY REDUCED, BUT IRAN AND AFGHANISTAN STILL SUFFERING
- RELUCTANCE TO USE OIL AS WEAPON
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NEW FOREIGN POLICY COUNCIL COULD AFFECT IRAN-U.S RELATIONS. The
creation in Iran this week of a foreign policy council connected with
the Supreme Leader's Office may reflect a desire to balance the
brash and inexperienced foreign affairs apparatus of President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad with the more measured input of elder statesmen. It also
could be a sign of the Iranian leadership's outright
dissatisfaction with the Ahmadinejad team. A third possibility is
that the new council will serve as a back-channel foreign policy
instrument. Coming on the heels of Washington's willingness to
take part in multilateral talks with Tehran on the nuclear issue, the
creation of this council could have profound implications on
Iran-U.S. relations.
The new Strategic Council for Foreign Relations (Shora-yi
Rahbordi-yi Ravabet-i Khareji) was created by a June 25 decree from
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The council is supposed to
facilitate the country's decision-making process, find new
foreign policy approaches, and make use of foreign policy experts,
according to the decree.
Vast Experience On Council
The council's membership reflects a search for practical
expertise. Kamal Kharrazi, who served as foreign minister from
1997-2005, will head the council. Other members are Ali Akbar
Velayati, who preceded Kharrazi as foreign minister and who currently
serves as Khamenei's foreign affairs adviser, and former Islamic
Revolution Guards Corp admiral Ali Shamkhani, who served as defense
minister from 1997-2005. These three officials have experience in the
highest levels of foreign policy.
Two other council members -- Mohammad Shariatmadari and
Mohammad-Hussein Taremi-Rad -- are not as well known.
Shariatmadari's whole career, it seems, has been spent in the
Commerce Ministry, and he served as minister from 1997-2005.
Taremi-Rad is the only cleric on the council. An alumni of the
hard-line Haqqani Seminary, he has headed the Iranian Center for
Historical Studies since May 1997 but, more significantly, has served
as ambassador to China and Saudi Arabia.
The cumulative experience of this council surpasses that of
the youthful and inexperienced foreign policy team under President
Ahmadinejad. Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki is a relatively young
53 years old, although he has served as a foreign envoy (ambassador
to Turkey from 1985-1989 and ambassador to Japan from 1994-1999) and
also as a legislator. Individuals named to ambassadorial postings
have been criticized for their relative inexperience, furthermore,
and the replacement by Ahmadinejad of some 60 envoys in important
posts such as Berlin, Brussels, London, and Paris, is viewed as
disruptive.
Unhappy With The President...
The creation of the new foreign relations council is the most
recent indication that Supreme Leader Khamenei is concerned about
Ahmadinejad's confrontational approach as well as his management
style. Shortly after the president's August 2005 inauguration,
Khamenei tasked the Expediency Council with overseeing the
system's policies by supervising the executive, legislative, and
judicial branches of government and reporting on their performance to
him.
This development was followed by the addition of old foreign
affairs hands -- former Supreme National Security Council Secretary
Hojatoleslam Hassan Rohani and former President Hojatoleslam Mohammad
Khatami -- to the Expediency Council's Strategic Research Center.
The Expediency Council must consider any issue submitted to it by the
supreme leader, according to the Iranian Constitution (Article 112),
so it appeared that he was turning to it for foreign policy advice.
This coincided with speculation that responsibility for the
nuclear account no longer rested with the Supreme National Security
Council, which is chaired by the president. Expediency Council chief
Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, however, rejected such claims
and observed that decisions on this subject are reached collectively.
Collective decision-making almost certainly continues to be
the case. Last autumn, however, there were calls for the creation of
a foreign-policy guidance team. The new Strategic Council for Foreign
Relations appears to fulfill that role. The leadership is keen to
preserve the illusion of unity within the governing system, so it
will not publicly chastise or shunt aside the executive branch of
government. Behind the scenes -- where real power is wielded -- it
could be that this is what has happened.
...Or A Means To Talk To The U.S.?
The third possible explanation for the creation of this
foreign relations council rests in Supreme Leader Khamenei's
repeated disavowals of any interest in holding talks with the U.S.
Most recently, during a June 27 meeting in Tehran, he said, "Talking
with America does not have any benefits for us; and we do not need
such talks," state television reported. Nevertheless, it was Khamenei
who in March defended Tehran's willingness to discuss Iraqi
affairs with Washington bilaterally. He may not favor talks with
Washington, but he or his advisers recognize that they are necessary
if the nuclear impasse is to be resolved.
The Strategic Council for Foreign Relations could conduct
such talks away from the limelight that an official diplomatic
delegation would attract. Indeed, one of the council members,
Velayati, has been used for such communications in the past. He
established an office in Dubai to facilitate clandestine contacts
with U.S. officials in the run-up to Operation Iraqi Freedom,
"Al-Sharq al-Awsat" reported in August 2002. More recently, he was in
Riyadh to relay a direct message from Khamenei to the Saudi monarch.
Some observers hope the new foreign relations council will
supplant the executive branch in foreign affairs. An enthusiastic
"Sharq" on June 27 described this as the return of the "moderates" to
foreign relations. The pro-reform daily noted that the council has
the makings of a presidential cabinet -- a military person
(Shamkhani), a commerce person (Shariatmadari), and a political and
cultural person (Velayati), working along with the head of the
council (Kharrazi).
At this early stage it is difficult to determine if this will
be the precise role of the new council. Executive branch spokesman
Gholam-Hussein Elham put on a brave face, saying on June 26 that the
council will add new views on foreign policy, but it is not empowered
to interfere with the Foreign Ministry or Supreme National Security
Council, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported. Kharrazi,
the head of the council, was more blunt, suggesting that the
executive branch has failed to implement national strategies. He said
on June 27 that Supreme Leader Khamenei "sensed a deficiency" in
which there was no strategy for the implementation of his policies,
IRNA reported. He said the council will devise appropriate strategies
and present them to Khamenei. If he approves the strategies, Kharrazi
continued, the relevant foreign policy bodies will act accordingly.
(Bill Samii)
SUPREME LEADER QUESTIONS USEFULNESS OF TALKS WITH U.S. Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said during a June 27 meeting with
Senegal's President Abdoulaye Wade that talks with the United
States would be of no benefit to Iran, state television reported.
However, Khamenei did not appear to rule out the suspension of some
aspects of Iran's controversial nuclear program. "We shall not
negotiate with anyone over our absolute right to acquire nuclear
technology and to benefit from this technology," Khamenei was quoted
as saying. "However, if they were to recognize this right of ours, we
are ready to talk about controls, supervision, and international
guarantees. And grounds have been paved for such talks, too."
Khamenei ascribed Iran's technical and scientific
accomplishments to necessity that resulted from "resistance in the
face of the arrogant powers' conspiracies and excessive demands."
Khamenei added that President Mahmud Ahmadinejad will
participate in the upcoming Organization of African Unity (OAU)
meeting as an observer. The OAU should meet in Banjul, Gambia, in
early July, according to the organization's website. Khamenei
discussed Islamic unity and claimed that the United States and the
"Zionist regime" oppose the emergence of a powerful global Muslim
community.
Khamenei told Justice Ministry and judiciary officials on
June 28 that national officials are expected to strengthen the
country against "hegemonic powers" by promoting "responsibility and
national solidarity," IRNA reported. Khamenei said popular support
serves as security for the government. (Bill Samii)
(...)
WORLD AWAITS IRAN'S RESPONSE TO NUCLEAR PROPOSAL. Tehran has
repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons. Iran could, however, build
an atomic bomb by 2009 if it prepares for the production of highly
enriched uranium this year, American physicist David Albright writes
in the July-August edition of the "Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists," Reuters reported on June 29.
The international community, meanwhile, is encouraging Iran
to respond a proposal it received in early June that calls for the
implementation of certain measures -- such as the suspension of
uranium enrichment and greater cooperation with nuclear inspectors --
while the peaceful nature of its nuclear program is ascertained.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in Moscow on June
29 that G8 foreign ministers expect Iran to reply "soon," RIA-Novosti
reported. France's Philippe Douste-Blazy said in Moscow on June
29 that Tehran must respond to the proposal "by 15 July," AFP
reported. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in Kabul on
June 28 that the world awaits an authoritative response from Tehran,
the State Department reported (usinfo.state.gov). She added,
"We've made very clear that we need an answer soon," and referred
to "weeks, not months."
Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said
on June 29 that Iran will not submit to pressure on the nuclear
issue, state television reported. "As we have said, a harsh approach
to Iran's nuclear case would not yield any results. Iranian
people would not forfeit their irrefutable rights," Larijani said.
The international community's proposal, which Larijani received
from visiting EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana on June 6, "was a
positive step forward." Larijani spoke optimistically about his talks
with Solana in the coming week. Larijani denied that Iran is facing a
deadline, IRNA reported. (Bill Samii)
TEHRAN DENIES INTERFERING IN IRAQ. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid
Reza Assefi denied on June 24 that Iran is interfering in Iraqi
affairs, IRNA reported. The previous week, Ambassador David
Satterfield, currently the senior adviser for Iraq to U.S. Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice, and General George Casey, the top
commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, ascribing to Iran support for
insurgent activities. Assefi said such accusations are meant to hide
alleged U.S. failings in Iraq, and he added that Washington wants a
weak Iraqi state in order to justify its occupation. (Bill Samii)
WORLD NARCOTICS SUPPLY REDUCED, BUT IRAN AND AFGHANISTAN STILL SUFFERING. As the United Nations marks its International Day
against Drug Abuse and Illicit Trafficking today, there is some
good news: according to the UN's latest World Drug Report, global
opium production fell last year. Though it is a welcome
development, the head of the UN's counternarcotics office says
Afghan opium production could increase this year. That will have
a strong impact on Iran, which has the world's highest drug-
seizure rate but also suffers from drug crime and abuse problems.
While the UN believes a reduction in demand for drugs is the most
important aspect of counternarcotics, the Iranian government
continues to emphasize supply interdiction.
Global opium production is estimated to have reached 4,620
tons in 2005 -- 5 percent less than the previous year, according to
the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime's (UNODC) World Drug
Report 2006, which was released on June 26.
UNODC Executive Director Antonio Maria Costa gave an overview
of which countries are growing the opium.
"By and large, 90 percent is from Afghanistan," he said.
"There is still a certain amount of cultivation -- I think over
30,000 hectares but going down rapidly -- in Myanmar (eds: Burma). On
the 14th of February this year we certified Laos as opium free; there
is practically nothing from... Thailand; about 5,000-6,000 hectares
were detected over time in Colombia -- to some extent eradicated but
some is still there -- and the Colombia crop goes to the United
States while the Afghanistan crop goes basically to Europe, China,
and Russia."
Overall cultivation figures from Afghanistan have fallen, but
cultivation in some areas of the country has increased. There are
indications, furthermore, that opium poppy planting increased this
year, particularly in the south.
Some 24 percent of all the opiates produced annually are
eventually seized by security forces. Afghanistan produced some 4,100
tons of opium in 2005, so it is natural that its neighbors -- Iran,
Pakistan, and China -- accounted for the highest seizure rates.
But Costa says it is not enough to interdict drugs or even to
eliminate opium crops. Costa recommended aggressive measures be made
to reduce demand for narcotics.
"We can consider drugs as an addiction problem and therefore
a behavioral problem," he said. "We can consider drugs as a
cultivation and an economic problem; but by and large it's a
market, with a demand and a supply. An illicit market -- an
'evil' market, if you wish -- but still it has a demand and a
supply. Like for any other product, if you cut the supply the demand
persists. Something is going to happen. First of all the price will
skyrocket."
Costa added that more people will enter the drug business as
it becomes more lucrative, and therefore more land will be devoted to
drug production. It is also possible that heroin addicts will turn to
other drugs that could be more dangerous.
"Therefore, my plea is indeed to forcefully act on curbing
the cultivation, and also, and perhaps even more forcefully, acting
on reducing demand, namely abuse, namely consumption."
According to the UN report, narcotics trafficking to Central
Asia and Pakistan has decreased, whereas trafficking towards Iran has
increased. Almost 60 percent of Afghan opiates go to or through Iran
and, according to the UNODC, this figure will rise. But UNODC chief
Costa also pointed out that Africa is playing an increasingly
important role in drug trafficking as interdiction efforts make it
more difficult for traffickers to use traditional routes.
"Africa is under threat. Nobody suspects transhipment of
narcotics from Africa into Europe," Costa said. "Therefore,
traffickers are using Africa to transship cocaine coming from
Colombia and the (Andes mountain region) and heroin coming from South
Asia and Afghanistan, in particular."
The amount of narcotics entering Iran is having a profound
impact on public health. Dr. Mohammad Mehdi Gooya, the chief of the
Iranian Health Ministry's disease-management center, said in
April that approximately 3.7 million Iranians abuse drugs, "Mardom
Salari" reported on April 18. He said there are 2.5 million addicts,
and that some 137,000 inject drugs occasionally.
Gooya said that research conducted five years earlier in six
cities in Tehran Province found that many addicts are female sex
workers.
He added that, "Some 94.8 percent of AIDS patients are men,
and 64.3 percent of them caught the disease through the use of
infected and shared syringes, while only 7.3 percent caught AIDS
through sexual intercourse."
The impact of narcotics on the Iranian penal system is
noticeable as well. More than 60 percent of the country's
convicts, Iranian officials say, have been imprisoned for
drug-related crimes. And more than 10,000 narcotics traffickers and
drug users have been executed over the past few decades, while
hundreds more face the death penalty.
Ali Akbar Yesaqi, the head of Iran's Prisons, Security,
and Corrections Organization, said some 50,000 people go to prison
every month, "Aftab-i Yazd" reported on June 14. Yesaqi said that the
prison population increased by 1.7 percent in the last year. He added
that some 70 percent of the prisoners seek drugs, and he admitted
that it is difficult to prevent drugs from getting into prisons.
Another prison organization official, Mohammad Ali Zanjirei,
said drug-related crimes are the most common in 19 of Iran's 30
provinces, "Aftab-i Yazd" reported on June 20.
The narcotics trade is not just having an impact on the
public-health sector and the penal system. The Iranian government
says more than 3,000 security officers have lost their lives fighting
drug trafficking, and Tehran asserts that it has spent billions of
dollars creating static defenses along its 1,800 kilometer border
with Afghanistan and Pakistan. As most of the drugs smuggled into
Iran are destined for Europe, Iranian officials say Western states
should be greater financial support to their efforts.
Fada Hussein Maleki, the secretary-general of Iran's Drug
Control Headquarters, addressed these issues in a speech before the
June 23 Friday Prayers sermon at Tehran University. He criticized
American and British efforts in Afghanistan because of the failure to
stop drug trafficking, and he accused them of wanting to legalize
opium cultivation, IRNA reported. Maleki added that the prevalence of
crystal methamphetamine, Ecstasy, and other synthetic drugs is
complicating the situation in Iran.
Expediency Council Chairman Ayatollah Ali-Akbar
Hashemi-Rafsanjani dedicated a great deal of his June 23 sermon in
Tehran to counternarcotics as well. In countries like Iran, he said,
synthetic drugs are more dangerous than opium, state television
reported.
Hashemi-Rafsanjani failed to discuss Iranians' demand for
drugs, and he focused instead on the supply side, for which he blamed
other countries. He referred to "traces of colonialism" and added:
"We realize that the leaders of all these major trafficking bands
that we arrest are supported by colonial countries." The West could
wipe out opium in Afghanistan by using chemical sprays,
Hashemi-Rafsanjani continued, and if it can track down terrorists
hiding in caves, why can't it deal with narcotics dealers in the
streets and heroin-manufacturers?
Iran's Expediency Council is revising current laws,
Hashemi-Rafsanjani told the congregation, but the police, Ministry of
Intelligence and Security, and legislature must work together as well
to help combat drug use and trafficking. Public awareness is
important, too, he said. "After all, if we can change the destiny of
a young addict, be it a boy or a girl, and give proper guidance to a
household where an addicted person was brought up, we can help
prevent others from falling into this dangerous trap."
Hashemi-Rafsanjani called on all citizens to work against drugs: "We
should all join hands and act together to tackle the problem."
It is notable that for UNODC chief Costa reducing the demand
for drugs is the most important issue, whereas Iran's leaders
seem to continue to focus on reducing the supplies of drugs. More
than a year ago the Iranian government said that greater attention
needs to be given to reducing demand, but with the election of
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad the old yet unsuccessful prioritization
of law and order and interdiction have been reinstated. (Bill Samii)
(...)
RELUCTANCE TO USE OIL AS WEAPON. Iranian Petroleum Minister Seyyed
Kazem-Vaziri-Hamaneh said on June 25 that Iran will use oil as a
weapon -- presumably restricting oil exports -- only "if the
country's interests are jeopardized," Fars News Agency reported.
Vaziri-Hamaneh said that under normal conditions this is not an
issue, and, furthermore, Iran would like to enjoy normal relations
with other countries. The imposition of sanctions, he said, would
lead to oil price hikes, with the price for a barrel of oil reaching
$100. (Bill Samii)
(...)
Copyright (c) 2006. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.
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