Shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act.
Pakistan: A Border Shooting and Musharraf's Troubles
Stratfor: Global Intelligence Brief - May 14, 2007
Summary
A NATO soldier was killed and four were wounded May 14 after
meeting with Pakistani and Afghan forces. NATO said "unknown
assailants" opened fire on the soldiers. The Pakistani and Afghan
governments have offered wildly different accounts of the attack.
The incident spells more trouble for Pakistani President Gen.
Pervez Musharraf's ability to tame his government's relations with
Afghanistan and to convince Washington he has what it takes to hold
the Pakistani army together while a political crisis boils at home.
Analysis
Service members of the NATO-led International Security Assistance
Force (ISAF) held a flag meeting with Pakistani and Afghan forces
May 14 in the Kurram tribal agency on the Pakistani side of the
Pakistani-Afghan border. After the meeting, which was called to
stem a border clash between Pakistani troops and Afghans that
started the previous day, "unknown assailants" ambushed the ISAF
members near Teri Mangal as the convoy traveled back to the Afghan
side of the border, leaving one NATO solider dead and four wounded,
according to a NATO statement.
Three to four U.S. soldiers and three to four Pakistani soldiers
also were injured, Pakistani military spokesman Maj. Gen. Waheed
Arshad said, though Pakistan's GEO TV reported that one U.S.
soldier and one Pakistani soldier were killed. Another senior
Pakistani security official said a man disguised as a Pakistani
paramilitary soldier had opened fire on the troops.
The Afghan government offered a starkly different account, however.
Afghan Defense Ministry spokesman Zahir Azimi said that at the
meeting, "A Pakistani officer rose up and fired at U.S. soldiers,
resulting in the deaths of two soldiers and the wounding of two
others."
Evidently, many different stories are circulating. But it appears
that a group of jihadists fired at the NATO convoy after the
meeting ended. A great deal of resentment is brewing among Pashtuns
in the Kurram tribal agency, and it would be reasonable to assume
that a NATO convoy would be vulnerable to an attack in the area,
particularly after the killing of the Taliban's top military
commander, Mullah Dadullah.
The attack and recent border clashes between Pakistani troops and
Afghan troops follow an April 30 meeting between Pakistani
President Gen. Pervez Musharraf and Afghan President Hamid Karzai
in Ankara, Turkey, aimed at quelling hostilities between the two
governments. Afghan-Pakistani relations have long been on the rocks
because of Kabul's repeated allegations that Islamabad is
dangerously undermining stability in the region by fueling the
Taliban insurgency next door. Pakistani moves to build a security
fence along the border have further inflamed tensions between Kabul
and Islamabad, since the Afghan government views such an effort in
an area that is essentially impossible to fence because of the
terrain as a blatant attempt to seize Afghan territory.
Faced with a growing political imbroglio at home over the
suspension of Pakistan's chief justice, Musharraf has decided to
clear his plate a bit by making a concerted effort to improve
relations with his Afghan neighbors. Though the two countries have
deep-rooted Pashtun ties, Pakistan cannot afford to alienate the
Afghan government too much for fear of losing influence in Kabul,
contributing to the spread of Talibanization within Pakistan's
own borders and giving longtime rival India an opportunity to cozy
up to the Afghan government and team up against Islamabad.
Musharraf's meeting with Karzai did result in some notable
improvements in the Afghan-Pakistani relationship, with both sides
agreeing to share intelligence and quell the jihadist insurgency
engulfing the region. The intelligence that led to the death of
Dadullah might have been the Musharraf government's way of
delivering on the promises it made to Karzai at that summit, though
the Afghan government clearly is not ready to ease the pressure off
the Pakistani leader any time soon.
By claiming that a Pakistani soldier simply stood up at the meeting
and fired at U.S. soldiers, the Afghan government delivered a
politically motivated message to Washington that Musharraf cannot
be relied on to cooperate on the counterterrorism front, and that
he cannot even control his own military. Though the NATO statement
contradicted the Afghan story, the idea that Musharraf is gradually
losing his grip on the Pakistani army could be gaining some ground
in Washington.
The political crisis in Pakistan reached its tipping point May
12-13, when more than 42 demonstrators in the southern port city of
Karachi were killed in clashes between pro-government and
opposition protesters. The legal row over suspended Chief Justice
Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry's dismissal has so emboldened Pakistan's
civil society and political opposition parties that everywhere
Chaudhry travels massive street demonstrations follow in a show of
support against the Musharraf government.
The Pakistani government attempted to quell the demonstrations by
playing up militant threats against Chaudhry, urging him to not
travel by car and to keep a low profile, but Chaudhry saw through
the political ploy and has continued to catalyze mass protests
throughout the country. By instigating violent protests ,
Musharraf and his advisers likely were hoping the ensuing
instability would pressure Chaudhry into toning down his campaign
and bring calm to Pakistan. But this appears to be yet another
miscalculation by Musharraf, as the opposition protesters have only
became more emboldened following the deadly riots in Karachi.
Pakistan's generals are watching closely as Musharraf's support is
rapidly eroded, and they are now seeing it in their best interest
to distance themselves as much as possible from the president. It
appears that even the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the
media arm of the military, has been told to back away from
Musharraf. Though the director-general of ISPR has recently
operated as Musharraf's press secretary and has often come to the
defense of the president, routine journalistic inquiries addressed
to the ISPR are now being directed to the Ministry of Information
and Broadcasting. In other words, the ISPR appears to have been
issued a directive of some sort telling it not take a stand and to
keep a safe distance from the political crisis.
The Karachi riots have backed Musharraf into a tighter corner, and
if he wants to finagle his way out of this mess, he will have to
make the appropriate concessions: reinstate the chief justice,
stand down as army chief and strike a deal with the country's main
opposition group, Pakistan People's Party Parliamentarians (PPP-P)
that allows PPP-P leader and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto
to save face for dealing with a president whose image has been
severely tarnished.
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and Musharraf has been
left with little choice but to yield to the demands of his
opponents -- or else risk being pressured by the army generals to
step aside in the interest of safeguarding the authority of the
military establishment. The Karachi riots have created a scenario
in which the best Musharraf can hope for is to be able to play a
role in the transition from military to civilian rule during the
early 2008 general election and negotiate to stay on as a
transitional president, a post that could provide him a safe exit
from power. If he does not move soon to quell this political
crisis, Washington could need to seriously consider what it can
expect from a post-Musharraf regime in Islamabad.
Comments (0)
You don't have permission to comment on this page.